Front to stall over Central Florida as NWS Tampa Bay flags a very wet week; Gulf system still at 90 percent

Polk County and the rest of west-central Florida are in for a soggy stretch. In its Tuesday morning forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in Tampa Bay said a frontal boundary will sink slowly south across North Florida today and stall across the Central Florida peninsula on Wednesday. Deep tropical moisture south of that front, with precipitable water values above 2.25 inches, is not expected to change for the next several days, so forecasters expect numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms across west-central and southwest Florida each day through the week and possibly into the weekend. Their key message: a very wet pattern with locally heavy rain and minor flooding possible. As of early Tuesday afternoon, NWS Tampa Bay had no flood watches, warnings or advisories in effect.

The Gulf disturbance is part of that picture. In its 8 a.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center held Invest 92L at a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression within 48 hours, saying one is anticipated to form over the next day or so over the southwestern Gulf before the system turns north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. NHC says it is too early to determine specific impacts, but interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely monitor it. The NOAA Gulfstream jet is scheduled to sample the environment today and an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Wednesday. NWS Tampa Bay expects the system to stay well west of its area but says it will help lift the stalled front back north and could bring increasing swells and hazardous boating conditions in the northeast Gulf later in the week. As of 1 p.m., NHC reported no active tropical cyclones.

Elsewhere in Florida, water is still causing problems. NWS Jacksonville issued a Flood Advisory until 2:30 p.m. for northeastern Duval County, including Talbot Island and Little Talbot Island, where 1 to 2 inches had fallen with up to 2 more expected, and its Flood Watch for Northeast Florida and coastal southeast Georgia runs through this evening. The St. Johns River near Astor is in minor flood and NWS Melbourne says it is forecast to keep rising steadily through the week because of northerly winds and repeated rounds of heavy rain. The St. Marys River at Macclenny stood at 12.2 feet Tuesday morning, just above its 12-foot flood stage, with a crest near 12.6 feet expected this evening, and the Shoal River near Crestview is forecast to crest at 8.2 feet early Wednesday afternoon. NWS Key West expects minor saltwater flooding of low streets in the Florida Keys through this evening, and coastal flood advisories are up along the South Carolina and southern North Carolina coast this afternoon.

Several days of repeated downpours is exactly when roof leaks, overwhelmed gutters and slab or crawlspace seepage show up. Keep gutters and downspouts clear, make sure water drains away from your foundation, and check ceilings and window sills after heavy rounds. If water gets inside in Lakeland or anywhere in Polk County, Florida Restoration Specialists provides water damage restoration and water extraction. Call (863) 588-6617.

Sources: NWS Tampa Bay Area Forecast Discussion (8:54 a.m. EDT Oct. 6), NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC Atlantic active storms, NWS active alerts for Florida, NWS active alerts for South Carolina, NWS Jacksonville, NWS Melbourne, NWS Key West, NWS flood safety.