Florida Keys face midweek heavy rain and street-flood risk; Fay weakens far offshore

The National Weather Service in Key West warned Monday, Sept. 21, that heavy rainfall is possible in parts of the Florida Keys through the week and into the weekend, with the greatest flooding risk Tuesday into Wednesday. Warning Coordination Meteorologist Jon Rizzo said total rainfall over the next three days — through Thursday morning — could range from about 2.5 inches to 4 inches, with a 10 percent chance of locally reaching about 5.5 inches. Daily odds of exceeding 2 inches in a 24-hour period are generally 10–25 percent through Wednesday, easing to 5–10 percent by Friday and Saturday, though chances could rise again Saturday night into Sunday. Confidence is low on where the heaviest rain will fall. NWS is monitoring a weak, broad area of low pressure to the northwest and an approaching cold front from the north. The primary threat is temporary flooding of poorly drained streets, parking lots, and low-lying areas. Daily briefings are scheduled for the remainder of the week at 9:30 a.m.

Separately, Tropical Storm Fay (AL062026) continues to weaken well offshore. NHC Public Advisory Number 10, issued at 9:00 p.m. GMT Monday, Sept. 21, placed the center near 33.1°N, 32.2°W — about 445 miles (720 km) southwest of the Azores — moving south-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph (75 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 1004 mb (29.65 inches). There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect, and NHC lists no hazards affecting land. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by late Tuesday. A gradual turn toward the southwest and west is expected over the next few days while the system stays over the open Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center’s 2:00 p.m. EDT Monday Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook notes advisories on Fay southwest of the Azores and a tropical wave forecast to move off western Africa by Wednesday. Development of that wave, if any, should be slow near the Cabo Verde Islands later this week — formation chance near 0 percent through 48 hours and low at 20 percent through seven days. Neither Fay nor that distant wave carries a Florida tropical watch or warning. Elsewhere in Florida, afternoon thunderstorms and localized urban or poor-drainage flooding remain a separate, non-tropical concern covered in earlier Restoration News posts today.

If stormwater enters a home or business, prompt extraction and drying matter in Florida humidity. Florida Restoration Specialists serves Central Florida water damage calls — water damage restoration and water extraction — or call (863) 588-6617.

Sources: Keys News: Wet weather expected as NWS flags heavy rain (Sept. 21), Keys News: Wet weather on the way for Florida Keys, NHC Public Advisory Number 10 — Tropical Storm Fay (9:00 p.m. GMT Sept. 21), NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (2:00 p.m. EDT Sept. 21), National Hurricane Center.