Gulf development odds rise to 40% as Flood Advisories hit Jacksonville and Palm Coast

The National Hurricane Center’s 2:00 p.m. EDT Sunday Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook raised the odds for the southwestern Gulf of America system, up from the low 30 percent seven-day chance in the 8:00 a.m. outlook to a medium 40 percent. Forecasters say an area of low pressure is likely to form around the middle of the week over the southwestern Gulf, and although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, some slow development is possible and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system drifts northward. The 48-hour formation chance remains near 0 percent, and no track, watches, or warnings have been issued. Fort Myers station WBBH notes the next name on the list would be Isaias.

Meanwhile, Sunday afternoon thunderstorms prompted several NWS Flood Advisories for minor flooding in low-lying and poor-drainage areas. NWS Jacksonville’s 4:33 p.m. advisory, in effect until 6:30 p.m., covers central Duval, central Nassau, and southeastern Baker counties plus part of Charlton County, Georgia — including Jacksonville, Arlington, Jacksonville International Airport, Fernandina Beach, Yulee, and Macclenny — where radar indicated 1 to 2 inches of rain had already fallen with another 1 to 3 inches expected. A companion 4:31 p.m. advisory for north-central Nassau and southern Camden County, Georgia (St. Marys and Kingsland) cited 1.5 to 3 inches already fallen. Earlier, a 3:19 p.m. advisory for central Flagler County (Palm Coast and Bunnell) cited 1.5 to 2.5 inches, and NWS Mobile issued a 1:34 p.m. CDT advisory for south-central Escambia County and the Perdido Bay area with 1 to 2 inches fallen.

The broader Flood Watches remain up. NWS Tallahassee updated its watch at 2:34 p.m., extending it through Monday evening across the Panhandle and Big Bend — including Bay, Gulf, Franklin, Walton, Leon, Wakulla, Jackson, and Gadsden zones — with additional totals of 2 to 4 inches and locally up to 6 inches possible, especially along the Emerald and Forgotten Coasts, and a warning that very high rain rates in the tropical air mass may lead to flash flooding. NWS Jacksonville’s Flood Watch continues through Monday morning for Duval, Nassau, Baker, Columbia, and Hamilton counties and southeast Georgia. In Okaloosa County, NWS Mobile has a Flood Warning for the Shoal River near Crestview, forecast to rise above its 8.0-foot flood stage Monday evening and crest near 8.9 feet early Tuesday afternoon; at 8.5 feet, water reaches yards on Sowel Road.

If heavy rain or floodwater has gotten into a Lakeland or Polk County home or business, Florida Restoration Specialists can help with water damage restoration and water extraction — call (863) 588-6617.

Sources: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (2 p.m. EDT Oct. 4), NWS active alerts for Florida (Flood Advisories, Flood Watches, Shoal River Flood Warning), NWS Jacksonville, WBBH: Gulf area of interest now has a medium chance of development, NWS flood safety.