Gulf system now 70% likely to develop as flash flooding hits Destin and Fort Walton Beach

The National Hurricane Center’s 8:00 a.m. EDT Monday Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook raised the southwestern Gulf of America system to a high 70 percent chance of formation over the next seven days, up from the medium 40 percent in Sunday afternoon’s outlook, with a low 30 percent chance in the next 48 hours. A trough of low pressure there is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and although conditions are only marginally conducive, forecasters say gradual development is becoming more likely and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. The system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days before turning northward. The outlook is not a track forecast, and no tropical watches or warnings are in effect for Florida.

Closer to shore, heavy rain is already causing problems in the Panhandle. NWS Mobile issued a Flash Flood Warning at 5:45 a.m. CDT, in effect until 8:45 a.m. CDT, for southern Okaloosa and southeastern Santa Rosa counties after radar and rain gauges showed 2 to 3 inches had fallen in and around Destin and Okaloosa Island, with 1 to 2 more inches possible — including Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Eglin AFB, Valparaiso, Mary Esther, and Navarre. At 8:35 a.m. EDT, NWS Tallahassee issued a Flood Advisory until 10:30 a.m. for southwestern Franklin and southeastern Gulf counties, including Apalachicola, Eastpoint, Carrabelle, and St. George Island, where 1 to 2 inches had fallen and another 1 to 2 inches were expected.

River flooding is building too. NWS Jacksonville’s Flood Warning for the St. Marys River at Macclenny calls for the river to rise above its 12.0-foot flood stage late Monday morning and crest near 14.0 feet Tuesday evening — the level at which the lower half of St. Mary’s River Bluff Road floods, cutting off 15 to 20 homes on the Georgia side. NWS Mobile now expects the Shoal River near Crestview to crest near 8.4 feet Tuesday morning, above its 8.0-foot flood stage. Flood Watches continue through Monday evening across Northeast Florida (with up to 3 more inches possible on saturated ground) and the Panhandle and Big Bend.

For the Tampa Bay area and Polk County, NWS Tampa Bay says thunderstorm coverage and rain totals will increase today and Tuesday as a slow-moving cold front sags south and stalls over Central Florida on Wednesday, keeping rainy conditions in place through the week. Five-day rainfall totals generally range from 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts that could lead to flooding.

If rain or floodwater gets into your Lakeland or Polk County home or business, take photos and video of the damage before cleanup, keep receipts, and start drying out quickly — Florida Restoration Specialists can help with water damage restoration and water extraction. Call (863) 588-6617.

Sources: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (8 a.m. EDT Oct. 5), NWS active alerts for Florida (Flash Flood Warning, Flood Advisory, Flood Warnings, Flood Watches), NWS Tampa Bay Area Forecast Discussion (Oct. 5), NWS Jacksonville, NWS flood safety.