Invest 92L jumps to 90 percent as a Gulf tropical depression nears; Northeast Florida under a Flood Watch

The Gulf disturbance we have been tracking took another step Tuesday morning. In its 8 a.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center raised Invest 92L's formation chance to 90 percent in both 48 hours and seven days, up from 60 and 80 percent on Monday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf are showing signs of organization, and NHC says a tropical depression is anticipated to form over the next day or so while the low drifts east. The system is expected to turn north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week; NHC says it is still too early to determine specific impacts, but interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely monitor its progress. The NOAA Gulfstream jet is scheduled to sample the environment over the Gulf later today, and an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate on Wednesday. As of 9 a.m., NHC reported no active tropical cyclones and no tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings for Florida.

Rain is still falling on already-wet North Florida. NWS Jacksonville's Flood Watch for Duval, Nassau, St. Johns, Flagler, eastern Clay and eastern Putnam counties and coastal southeast Georgia runs from 10 a.m. through this evening, warning that heavy rainbands pushing in from the Atlantic could bring locally 3 to 5 inches this afternoon and early evening. An 8:51 a.m. Flood Advisory for east-central Duval County noted 0.5 to 1.5 inches already fallen with 1 to 3 more expected, and a Coastal Flood Advisory for the Northeast Florida beaches and St. Johns River basin runs from noon today until 5 a.m. Thursday, along with a High Surf Advisory for 6 to 8 foot breakers. In the Big Bend, NWS Tallahassee issued a Flood Advisory until noon for parts of Dixie, Lafayette and Taylor counties, including Steinhatchee and Keaton Beach, where 1 to 4 inches had fallen and 2 to 4 more are expected. The Tallahassee office notes coastal Franklin County has picked up 6 to 11 inches over the past few days.

Rivers are responding. NWS Melbourne issued a Flood Warning this morning for the St. Johns River near Astor in Lake and Volusia counties, which has reached minor flood stage at 2.3 feet and is forecast to keep rising to about 2.7 feet late this week. Minor-flood warnings also continue for the St. Marys River at Macclenny, forecast to crest near 13 feet this evening, and for the Shoal River near Crestview, expected to top flood stage this evening. NWS Tallahassee expects drier weather Wednesday and most of Thursday before an increasing potential for heavy rain Friday into the weekend, regardless of whether 92L develops. As of this morning, NWS Tampa Bay, which serves Polk County, had no flood alerts in effect.

With more rain possible late this week, now is a good time to clear gutters and drains, check that sump pumps and yard drainage work, and photograph your home and belongings for insurance. If water gets inside in Lakeland or anywhere in Polk County, Florida Restoration Specialists provides water damage restoration and water extraction. Call (863) 588-6617.

Sources: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (8 a.m. EDT Oct. 6), NHC Atlantic active storms, NWS active alerts for Florida (Flood Watch, Flood Warnings, Flood and Coastal Flood Advisories), NWS Tallahassee, NWS Jacksonville, NWS Melbourne, NOLA.com: Invest 92L to be tropical depression in Gulf within a day, Florida Times-Union: Invest 92L spaghetti models, Florida impacts, NWS flood safety.