Gulf system becomes Invest 92L, now 80% likely to develop as Hurricane Hunter flights are scheduled

The National Hurricane Center’s 2:00 p.m. EDT Monday Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook designated the southwestern Gulf of America disturbance as AL92 (Invest 92L) and raised its development odds to a medium 60 percent over the next 48 hours and a high 80 percent over seven days — up from 30 and 70 percent in the 8 a.m. outlook. Forecasters now say a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle portion of the week as the system drifts eastward for the next couple of days before turning northward. NHC says it is too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the system. The outlook is not a track forecast, and no tropical watches or warnings are in effect for Florida.

NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters are getting ready. The Tropical Cyclone Plan of the Day issued at 11:40 a.m. EDT schedules a NOAA G-IV jet (NOAA 49) synoptic surveillance flight around the suspect area Tuesday, taking off at 1:30 p.m. EDT. For Wednesday, the plan outlines a possible low-level invest mission into the system near 21.7°N, 93.7°W at 10 a.m. EDT, another G-IV surveillance flight departing Lakeland Linder International Airport (KLAL) at 1:30 p.m. EDT, and possible NOAA P-3 tail Doppler radar missions departing Lakeland at 10 a.m. and 10 p.m. EDT.

Meanwhile, the heavy rain falling across the Panhandle and Big Bend is already causing flooding. At 11:24 a.m. EDT, NWS Tallahassee issued a Flood Warning until 2:30 p.m. for southwestern Franklin County after emergency management reported flooding and standing water, with 3 to 5 inches of rain having fallen around Apalachicola, Eastpoint, Bay City, and the Apalachicola Airport. A Flash Flood Warning followed at 11:43 a.m. CDT, in effect until 2:45 p.m. CDT, for northwestern Calhoun and southeastern Jackson counties, where 2.5 to 3.5 inches had fallen and 2 to 3 more inches were possible — including Grand Ridge, Altha, and Sink Creek — and a Flood Advisory covered Panama City, Lynn Haven, Panama City Beach, and Marianna. NWS Mobile now forecasts the Shoal River near Crestview to crest at 8.9 feet early Wednesday afternoon, near its 9.0-foot crest of Jan. 2, 2016, with water in yards on Sowel Road at 8.5 feet. In Northeast Florida, the St. Marys River at Macclenny reached its 12.0-foot flood stage at 9:45 a.m., and NWS Jacksonville issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the Northeast Florida beaches and St. Johns River basin from noon Tuesday until 5 a.m. Thursday.

With a soggy week ahead and a possible tropical system in the Gulf, now is a good time for Lakeland and Polk County homeowners to clear gutters and drains and check for roof or window leaks. If water gets inside, document the damage with photos and start drying out fast — Florida Restoration Specialists provides water damage restoration and water extraction. Call (863) 588-6617.

Sources: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (2 p.m. EDT Oct. 5), NHC Tropical Cyclone Plan of the Day (11:40 a.m. EDT Oct. 5), NWS active alerts for Florida (Flood Warnings, Flash Flood Warning, Flood Advisory, Coastal Flood Advisory), NWS Tallahassee, NWS Mobile, NWS Jacksonville, NWS flood safety.