Isaias Nears Hurricane Strength as Watches Expand Inland Across the Florida Panhandle

Tropical Storm Isaias is quickly intensifying in the southern Gulf. In its 4 PM CDT (5 PM EDT) Advisory 5 on Wednesday, October 7, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) put maximum sustained winds near 65 mph, up from 45 mph at 11 AM EDT, with a minimum pressure of 994 mb measured by NOAA Hurricane Hunters. The center was about 500 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving east-northeast at 8 mph. NHC expects Isaias to become a hurricane by Thursday morning, turn northeast and then north, and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. NHC's forecast peaks near 110 mph Friday afternoon, and its discussion says almost all guidance still shows a Category 1 or 2 hurricane at landfall.

NHC's coastal watches did not change: a Hurricane Watch from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida; a Storm Surge Watch from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida; and a Tropical Storm Watch east of Indian Pass to the Aucilla River. NHC says more watches and warnings could be needed tonight. Inland, NWS Tallahassee issued new Tropical Storm Watches for Calhoun, Jackson, Liberty, and inland Franklin counties in Florida and five southeast Alabama counties. NWS Mobile's Hurricane Watch now covers inland as well as coastal Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. NHC's updated surge forecast calls for 5 to 7 feet from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to Indian Pass and in Mobile Bay, 4 to 6 feet from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River, and 2 to 4 feet from the Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown if the peak surge arrives at high tide.

NHC now forecasts 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local totals up to 10 inches, from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle Friday through the weekend, and 1 to 3 inches, locally up to 5, across much of the Southeast. NWS Tallahassee says recent rain has left the ground soggy, so those totals would likely cause at least isolated flash flooding and some river flooding, and tornadoes are possible Friday into Saturday. For the Tampa Bay area, NWS Tampa Bay says there are currently no concerns for tropical-storm-force winds, but a Storm Surge Watch covers coastal Levy County for up to 4 feet of surge. Residents in surge watch areas should follow local officials and evacuate if told to do so.

Before the storm, move valuables off the floor, clear gutters and drains, and photograph your home for insurance. If water gets in afterward, start drying it within 24 to 48 hours to limit mold. Florida Restoration Specialists does water extraction and drying in Lakeland and Polk County. Call (863) 588-6617.

Sources: NHC Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory #5, NHC Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion #5, NWS Tallahassee Local Statement, NWS Mobile Local Statement, NWS Tampa Bay Local Statement.