September 13, 2026
NHC watching subtropical Atlantic trough; Florida formation odds stay low
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a trough of low pressure in the central subtropical Atlantic with near 0% chance of formation in 48 hours and 20% over seven days — still far from a Florida land threat.
As of 8:00 a.m. EDT Sunday, Sept. 13, the National Hurricane Center’s Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook lists one area of interest: a trough of low pressure over the central subtropical Atlantic with disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Strong upper-level winds are keeping conditions unfavorable for development right now.
NHC says the system is expected to move into a somewhat more favorable environment by the middle to later part of this week as it tracks generally west-northwest across the central subtropical Atlantic. Formation chance is near 0 percent through 48 hours and low — 20 percent — through seven days. There is no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning for Florida from this feature.
That is a change from Saturday’s outlook, which stated tropical cyclone formation was not expected during the next seven days. Even with a monitored area on the map, the current forecast keeps the near-term Florida story on local thunderstorms, street flooding, and ongoing rainy-season moisture rather than a named Atlantic system approaching the state.
If heavy rain or stormwater enters a home or business, prompt water extraction and structural drying matter in Florida humidity. Florida Restoration Specialists serves Central Florida water damage calls — water damage restoration and water extraction — or call (863) 588-6617.
Sources: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (text, 8:00 a.m. EDT Sept. 13), NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, News4JAX summary.
