South Florida faces peak afternoon flood risk today after a soggy September

South Florida’s flood concern is concentrated this afternoon. Local 10 meteorologist Brandon Orr wrote at 9:47 a.m. EDT Tuesday, Sept. 22, that the setup mirrors Monday: a mostly dry morning, then rising temperatures into the upper 80s fueling widespread thunderstorms. The main threat is very heavy rain and storms that can back-build over the same neighborhoods, potentially producing 3 to 6 inches in a short period and localized flooding. Parts of South Florida have already seen about 10 to 20 inches of rain so far this month, so saturated ground cannot absorb additional water quickly. Orr said the highest rain chance peaks today, with fewer storms expected as the week continues, and a front later this weekend that could usher in somewhat drier air by Sunday and Monday.

That afternoon focus lines up with National Weather Service Miami guidance. The Area Forecast Discussion issued at 7:18 a.m. EDT Tuesday expects scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today, with elevated rain chances through the rest of the week. Heavy downpours could still cause localized flooding in urban and poor-drainage areas each day. The Weather Prediction Center is carrying a marginal risk of excessive rainfall today and Wednesday for Southeast Florida. Forecast precipitable water of about 2.1 to 2.4 inches sits above the 90th percentile for this time of year, and southerly low-level flow may pin the Atlantic sea breeze, focusing flooding concerns along the east coast metro. WPBF likewise flagged saturated ground and on-and-off showers after about 2 p.m., with localized flooding possible through Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Fay is not a Florida threat. NHC Advisory 13 at 3:00 p.m. GMT Tuesday placed the center near 31.1°N, 34.6°W — about 645 miles southwest of the Azores — with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph. Fay is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today. There are no coastal watches or warnings, and NHC lists no land hazards. The 8:00 a.m. EDT Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook notes only a far-eastern tropical wave expected to leave western Africa tomorrow, with low formation chances (near 0 percent through 48 hours, 30 percent through seven days).

If stormwater enters a home or business, prompt extraction and drying matter in Florida humidity. Florida Restoration Specialists serves Central Florida water damage calls — water damage restoration and water extraction — or call (863) 588-6617.

Sources: Local 10: Sept. 22 afternoon thunderstorms and flooding concerns, NWS Miami Area Forecast Discussion (7:18 a.m. EDT Sept. 22), WPBF: South Florida storms and flooding through Tuesday, NHC Tropical Depression Fay Advisory 13, NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (8:00 a.m. EDT Sept. 22).