Tropical Depression Nine forms in the Gulf; NHC forecasts a hurricane approaching the northern Gulf Coast Friday

The Gulf system everyone has been watching is now a tropical cyclone. In its first advisory at 4 p.m. CDT (5 p.m. EDT) Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said Tropical Depression Nine, the ninth depression of the season, had formed over the southwestern Gulf about 380 miles west of Progreso, Mexico, and about 630 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph, minimum pressure was 1007 mb, and it was drifting east near 5 mph. NHC forecasts steady strengthening, with the depression becoming a tropical storm by early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday as it passes north of the Yucatan Peninsula, then turning northeast and approaching the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect yet.

NHC's key messages call for an increasing risk of dangerous wind and storm surge impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and say watches could be required on Wednesday. Residents from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle are urged to closely monitor updates and make sure their hurricane plan is in place. From Friday through the weekend, the system is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 10 inches, from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, with flash and urban flooding and isolated river flooding possible. Forecasters noted significant uncertainty in where the system makes its northeast turn and how fast it moves, and said it will likely grow significantly in size, especially on its eastern side, as it nears the coast, so people should not focus on the exact forecast points. The NOAA G-IV jet was sampling the environment Tuesday afternoon, and Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate on Wednesday.

Closer to home, the front over the peninsula is not going anywhere soon. In its 2:45 p.m. discussion, the National Weather Service in Tampa Bay said the front is stuck over the state for the rest of the week, bringing on-and-off showers day and night, with the biggest impacts Wednesday and Thursday and 2 to 4 inches of total rain through the rest of the week before the front lifts north by the weekend. Rain chances at Winter Haven were 80 to 90 percent through Wednesday. Elsewhere Tuesday afternoon, NWS Jacksonville had a Flood Advisory until 8 p.m. for Duval and parts of Nassau and St. Johns counties, where 2 to 5 inches had already fallen in many areas and minor flooding could be worsened by the evening high tide, plus a Coastal Flood Advisory for the St. Johns River basin until 5 a.m. Thursday. NWS Melbourne issued Flood Advisories for the Port St. Lucie and Vero Beach areas after 1.5 to 3 inches of rain.

With days of steady rain ahead in Polk County and a hurricane threat building for the northern Gulf, now is the time to clear gutters and drains, check your roof and window seals, and know who to call. If water gets inside your home or business in Lakeland or anywhere in Polk County, Florida Restoration Specialists provides water damage restoration and water extraction. Call (863) 588-6617.

Sources: NHC Tropical Depression Nine Public Advisory 1, NHC Tropical Depression Nine Discussion 1, NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (2 p.m. EDT), NHC Atlantic active storms, NWS Tampa Bay Area Forecast Discussion (2:45 p.m. EDT Oct. 6), NWS active alerts for Florida, NWS Jacksonville, NWS Melbourne, NWS flood safety.